JP Morgan has re-evaluated its economic growth forecast for the UK in light of the latest GDP figures. Initially anticipating a growth of 0.3 per cent, the bank has now revised this to 0.4 per cent from July to September, reflecting an annualised growth rate of 1.5 per cent.
The adjustment follows the release of second-quarter GDP data revealing a 0.6 per cent increase. Despite favourable headline numbers, the bank cautions that underlying growth may be weaker, as consumer spending rose only modestly by 0.2 per cent. Retail sales volumes, however, jumped by 0.5 per cent in July, suggesting a solid beginning for the third quarter.
JP Morgan’s revised forecast points to a resilient UK economy, driven by strong consumer activity and retail performance. Although some underlying weaknesses are noted, the overall outlook remains positive.
The bank’s cautious yet optimistic stance suggests that ongoing economic expansion can be sustained, provided monetary policies remain prudent. As 2024 progresses, economic indicators will need to be closely observed to ensure continued growth.
JP Morgan’s adjustment of its growth forecast highlights a promising trajectory for the UK economy. Robust retail activity and consumer confidence signal enduring strength, while prudent monetary policies aim to support sustained economic progress.
Monitoring key economic indicators will be crucial in maintaining this momentum and addressing any emerging challenges that could affect growth trajectories.
