The 2024 presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be the closest race for the White House in the past 60 years. Polling since the September 10 debate indicates a tight contest, with Harris maintaining a slight national edge over Trump. However, the race remains well within the margin of error, making it too close to call.
Recent polling, including surveys from CBS News and NBC News, shows Harris leading by 4 to 5 points, which are some of her best numbers to date. Historically, Democrats have seen larger leads at this stage, underscoring the unprecedented closeness of this election. According to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, Harris is ahead by an average of 3 points, consistent with the trend observed throughout the year. Neither candidate has managed to secure a lead of 5 points or more in national polling, even when Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Even Harris’s commanding debate performance over Trump has only shifted the needle by a few points. The rarity of such a consistently narrow margin of difference between major-party nominees can be traced back to the 1960 campaign. Historically, presidential races have seen periods where one candidate held a significant lead, which has not occurred in the 2024 election cycle. A 3-point edge is precarious, given that the average polling error on the eve of the election is also 3 points, with some years showing even higher discrepancies.
The Electoral College further complicates the race. Trump appears to be in a stronger position in the Electoral College compared to the popular vote, partly due to his support base, which includes White voters without a college degree who are overrepresented in key battleground states. An estimate suggests Harris needs to win the popular vote by more than 3 points to be a clear favourite in the Electoral College, a threshold she has yet to reach.
Current state-level data shows neither candidate with a decisive advantage. CNN’s race ratings indicate Harris starting with 225 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, with seven states and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District up for grabs. Harris performs slightly better than Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but these leads are minimal. Trump shows marginally better performance in Arizona and Georgia. Assigning electoral votes based on an advantage of greater than 1 point places Harris at 269 to Trump’s 246, with Nevada and North Carolina remaining too close to call.
If Trump secures North Carolina, he would have 262 electoral votes. Harris is favoured in Nebraska’s 2nd District, which could give her the 270 electoral votes needed for a win. However, potential changes to Nebraska’s electoral vote allocation could place Trump at 263 to Harris’s 269, making Nevada’s 6 electoral votes crucial. A tie of 269-269 would lead to a contingent election decided by the US House of Representatives, where Trump might be favoured. Delays in ballot counting in Nevada could extend the uncertainty for days, leaving the presidency hanging in the balance.
This year’s presidential race is extraordinarily tight, with minimal shifts potentially determining the outcome. As it stands, the election is too close to call, with critical implications for the balance of power in the United States.
