Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump significantly among Black likely voters, but she has yet to match the support levels Joe Biden achieved in 2020. The following points highlight this discrepancy and areas for potential growth.
- Harris leads Trump by 63 points, holding 79% support among Black likely voters.
- Enthusiasm among Black voters has increased since Harris entered the race, with 79% of Black registered voters now saying they will definitely vote.
- The 40% of Black likely voters who view Biden’s presidency as a failure still support Harris over Trump by a wide margin.
- Non-Democratic Black voters show a more favourable view of Harris compared to independents or Republicans.
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 63 points among Black likely voters, with 79% supporting Harris compared to 16% for Trump. This is an improvement over Joe Biden’s 46-point lead in a June poll but falls short of Biden’s 75-point margin in the 2020 exit polls.
Enthusiasm among Black voters has increased with Harris’s candidacy. In the latest poll, 79% of Black registered voters confirmed they would definitely vote, up from 68% in June. Black voters are now as likely as other voters to say voting is extremely important, with both groups at 63%.
Harris receives broad support from the 40% of Black likely voters who view Biden’s presidency as a failure. Among these voters, Harris leads Trump 65% to 31%. This segment’s support indicates potential areas for Harris to grow her margins.
Harris’s strongest support comes from Black voters aged 60 and over, leading by 87 points, which is close to Biden’s 85-point margin in 2020. However, her lead narrows among Black voters under 60 to 55 points, compared to Biden’s 71 points in 2020. Trump performs best among Black likely voters under 40, achieving 22% support.
The poll underscores Harris’s potential to improve her margins, with 92% of Black likely voters who support her having made up their minds. Conversely, a third of those backing other candidates may change their preferences.
Overall, 8 in 10 Black registered voters view Harris favourably, and Black Democrats hold slightly more positive views of her than their party peers. Non-Democratic Black voters are more likely to have favourable views of Harris compared to independents or Republicans.
Black voters outside the Democratic Party say Harris improves their view of the Democratic Party and that they would be proud if she wins the election. They rate her positively on attributes such as temperament and leadership skills, seeing her as aligned with their vision of a president.
Despite broad support for Harris, Black voters are primarily concerned with the economy, aligning with the general electorate. However, Democratic Black voters are more focused on the economy (42%) compared to democratic voters overall (19%). Jobs and wages are more frequently cited as top issues by Black voters.
Nearly 9 in 10 Black registered voters feel the U.S. political system requires a major overhaul, and a majority believe the federal government does not do enough for Black Americans. A notable portion also feels the government does too much for White Americans while neglecting Black Americans.
The poll, conducted by SSRS from September 19-22, 2024, surveyed 2,074 registered voters nationwide. It included an oversample of 579 Black registered voters, with results weighed to appropriate population sizes to ensure accurate representation.
Although Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among Black likely voters, significant room remains for her to expand her support to match Joe Biden’s 2020 performance.
