Senior US officials were practically triumphant on Wednesday night, having secured a ceasefire proposal for the Israel-Lebanon border following days of intense negotiations.
In a hastily arranged call with reporters, top administration officials described the framework as an “important breakthrough.” The proposed 21-day pause in fighting would allow for diplomatic efforts and potentially avert a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah. The officials emphasised that the question was not if, but when Israel and Hezbollah would accept the ceasefire proposal. Both parties were familiar with the text, and the US was confident enough to make the framework public, believing both sides were ready to commit.
However, merely hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu contradicted these assumptions. His office released a statement dismissing reports of an imminent ceasefire as “incorrect,” asserting that the IDF would continue its operations with “full force.” Netanyahu himself reiterated this stance upon arriving in New York City, stating, “My policy, our policy, is clear: We continue to hit Hezbollah with all our might. We will not stop until we achieve all our goals.”
24 hours after the White House’s announcement, there is still no indication that Israel and Hezbollah are prepared to agree to the ceasefire. Israel’s initial reaction was unexpected for the White House, raising questions about why, despite apparent prior agreement, Israel’s leadership seemed so quick to reject the proposal. Some speculated that Netanyahu might be influenced by domestic political pressures, particularly from right-wing Israeli ministers who were vocally opposed to the ceasefire.
An American source expressed frustration, noting that the US would not have shown such optimism without strong private indications of Israel’s readiness to accept the framework. The source also indicated that negotiations could be protracted, with no immediate resolution in sight. If Israel does not publicly accept the proposal, Hezbollah is unlikely to either.
US officials had felt assured in making the proposal public due to their interactions with Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu. The discussions on the ceasefire began with a conversation between Dermer and Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser. The US officials believed that Netanyahu supported a pause in fighting and had collaborated with French officials to finalise a statement encouraging a 21-day ceasefire.
French President Emmanuel Macron expressed that it would be a “mistake” for Netanyahu to reject the ceasefire and suggested that the US would need to exert more pressure on Israel. Netanyahu’s apparent reversal has been a significant disappointment for some officials, highlighting Netanyahu’s willingness to publicly diverge from Biden, especially when facing internal political opposition.
In light of this unexpected development, White House officials faced numerous questions from reporters. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that the multi-nation statement had been “indeed coordinated with the Israeli side” and that discussions were ongoing. White House spokesman John Kirby added that the statement was not made in a vacuum and involved consultations with Israel. Kirby acknowledged the difficulty in explaining Netanyahu’s comments but insisted that the US genuinely believed Israel had agreed to the proposal.
For the time being, administration officials remain hopeful that an agreement can still be reached. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with top Israeli officials in New York. When asked if they would accept the ceasefire, Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog and Ron Dermer were non-committal, emphasising that discussions were just beginning.
The unexpected rejection by Israel has created significant uncertainty regarding the ceasefire proposal, leaving US officials to navigate a complex and evolving situation.
