A new poll has cast a shadow over the prospects of North Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial nominee, Mark Robinson, following recent controversies. According to the latest CNN/SSRS poll, Robinson is trailing his Democratic opponent, Josh Stein, by a significant margin of 17 points. This survey was conducted entirely after the publication of a report detailing Robinson’s inflammatory and racist remarks on a porn website’s message board.
The poll indicates that Stein is leading with 53% of the vote among likely voters, compared to Robinson’s 36%. This 17-point gap is unprecedented this year, significantly larger than the 10- and 11-point leads seen in earlier polls by Marist College and The New York Times/Siena College.
The recent scandal appears to have had a substantial impact on Robinson’s campaign. A 6 to 7-point polling penalty aligns with historical data on electoral penalties following scandals, such as a 538 analysis showing an average negative effect of 8 points in congressional campaigns. The 17-point lead for Stein, if it holds, would represent the largest margin of victory for a Democrat in a North Carolina gubernatorial race since 1980.
Further analysis of the poll highlights Stein’s broad support base. He leads across various demographics, including gender, race, age groups, income levels, and educational backgrounds. Specifically, Stein has a higher share of the vote among men and women, Black and White voters, those earning above and below $50,000, and both college graduates and non-graduates. Only the GOP’s core base of White non-college graduates, conservatives, and Republicans show majority support for Robinson.
Within the Republican base, Robinson’s support is also shaky. Only 74% of Republicans are backing him, with 12% indicating they will vote for Stein, another 3% supporting a different candidate, and 11% undecided. In stark contrast, Trump garners 94% of the Republican vote in the presidential race. Stein also enjoys strong support within his party, with 95% of Democrats backing him.
Robinson’s favourability ratings further underscore his challenges. Only 27% of likely voters have a favourable view of him, while a majority of 53% view him unfavourably. A significant 80% of voters have formed an opinion about him, a contrast to Stein, where only 63% have an opinion. Even among Republicans, only 53% view Robinson favourably, with 25% holding an unfavourable opinion and 19% neutral. This indicates a lack of robust enthusiasm within his own party.
The persistently close presidential race in North Carolina suggests that Robinson’s issues have not significantly impacted the broader Republican ticket. Despite Robinson’s plummeting numbers, polling indicates a tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the state. This underscores the isolated nature of Robinson’s scandal and its direct impact on his gubernatorial bid.
In conclusion, the latest polling data suggests that Mark Robinson is on course for a significant defeat in North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. The fallout from his recent scandal has dramatically widened the gap between him and his opponent, Josh Stein. With Stein leading across multiple demographics and Robinson’s support dwindling even within his own party, it is evident that Robinson faces a historic setback at the ballot box.