The shadow of the presidential race looms over the New Hampshire governor’s election. This race features a face-off between Republican Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Joyce Craig.
Voters in New Hampshire are known for their unique approach to elections, frequently splitting their tickets. This year’s governor’s race, however, might put that trend to the test more than ever.
The Historical Context
The last time Kelly Ayotte ran for office was alongside Donald Trump, and her association with him might have contributed to her loss. This year, Ayotte is once again in the spotlight, running for the governorship in what is considered the nation’s most competitive race.
Ayotte’s association with Trump remains a contentious point. Republicans are attempting to localise the contest by focusing on Joyce Craig’s tenure as the mayor of Manchester, particularly her handling of homelessness and drug issues.
However, the Democrats are nationalising the debate, attacking Ayotte on her stance on abortion and her ties to Trump. Voter sentiment in New Hampshire is divided, reflecting a broader national trend.
Abortion Motivates Democratic Voters
In 2016, Ayotte withdrew her support for Trump after the emergence of the ‘Access Hollywood’ tape. This decision is believed to have impacted her narrow loss to Democrat Maggie Hassan.
Ayotte now fully supports Trump, a stance that has attracted both criticism and support. Democrats argue that her credibility is in question, especially given her voting record on abortion and her role in the Supreme Court confirmation of Neil Gorsuch.
Ayotte has stated that she will defend New Hampshire’s current abortion laws, which permit abortion up to 24 weeks. Nevertheless, some voters remain sceptical of her assurances.
‘Politicizing abortion to win votes. It’s wrong, and it’s not New Hampshire,’ Ayotte asserts in her campaign.
GOP Pushes Law and Order
At the Puritan Backroom restaurant, Ayotte finds support among conservative voters who criticise Craig’s performance as mayor. They cite issues like increased homelessness and street begging as significant concerns.
Ayotte’s ads specifically blame Craig for exacerbating Manchester’s homelessness crisis. These ads have been a key part of her campaign strategy.
Craig’s tenure has seen budgets that override the city’s tax cap, although she contends that increased spending was necessary due to fewer resources from the state. Republicans are trying to leverage this against her by linking her to higher taxes and fears of New Hampshire becoming more like Massachusetts.
Democratic Counterattacks
Craig advocates for affordable housing and better management of homelessness. She highlights her efforts to open city-funded shelters and build more housing as evidence of her commitment to resolving these issues.
She criticises Ayotte’s position on the board of private equity giant Blackstone, suggesting a lack of connection to the state’s needs. An ad featuring Democratic former Governor John Lynch praises the rise of advanced manufacturing jobs under Craig’s tenure, painting a positive picture of Manchester.
Some voters are not impressed by Ayotte’s negative portrayal of Manchester, particularly as her campaign had to retract an ad that inaccurately referenced a murder during Craig’s tenure.
Party Support Dynamics
Craig benefits from strong support from the national Democratic Party and its coordinated campaign in New Hampshire. This backing is a significant advantage for her in the tight race.
On the other hand, Ayotte relies primarily on her campaign’s efforts, though she also has the support of the Republican Governors Association. The RGA’s focus has shifted largely to New Hampshire, suggesting the critical importance of Ayotte’s victory for the party.
A recent poll indicates that the race between Ayotte and Craig is evenly matched, with no clear leader. The outcome might hinge on the performance of the presidential candidates, particularly the margin by which Kamala Harris would win in New Hampshire.
The Importance of Ticket-Splitting
New Hampshire has a history of ticket-splitting, with voters often choosing candidates from different parties for different offices. This year’s race will test whether that trend continues amidst heightened national polarisation.
Former state GOP Chairman Fergus Cullen suggests that if voters decide against Trump, it might impact other Republican candidates. However, Ayotte’s past victories in the state offer a glimmer of hope for her supporters.
Political analysts believe that if Trump loses New Hampshire by a margin larger than a few points, it could be detrimental for Ayotte’s campaign. This makes the race particularly unpredictable and closely watched.
This governor’s race in New Hampshire exemplifies the complexities of modern American politics. Both candidates face challenges and opportunities as they navigate a divided electorate.
The extent to which ticket-splitting will influence the outcome remains uncertain. Yet, it is clear that the results will have significant implications for both the state and the national political landscape.
