Recent polling underscores the intense competition between key presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Georgia and North Carolina. These states are pivotal in the upcoming elections, with no candidate clearly leading.
The survey reflects a divided electorate where early voting is already influencing dynamics. These battlegrounds highlight the differing voter preferences and demographic influences shaping the current political environment. Understanding these patterns is crucial as the election approaches.
Overview of Poll Results
In a recent poll, conducted by SSRS, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead in the presidential race in Georgia and North Carolina. Likely voters in Georgia are closely split at 48% for Trump and 47% for Harris. In North Carolina, the figures are reversed, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. These results, within the margin of error, suggest no decisive leader in either state.
Historical Context and Voting Patterns
Georgia and North Carolina have been crucial battlegrounds in recent elections. North Carolina supported Barack Obama narrowly in 2008 but has voted Republican in the subsequent presidential elections. In 2020, it was a narrow win for Trump. Georgia, on the other hand, saw a Democratic victory for the first time since 1992 when Joe Biden won by a slim margin. These states are pivotal in shaping the current political landscape.
Voter Commitment and Early Voting
Voter determination is a key factor this election season. A substantial 95% of likely voters in both states have firmly decided on their candidate. More than half have already cast their votes, with a slight edge towards Harris: 59% of early voters in Georgia and 52% in North Carolina. This early voting trend could potentially influence the final outcome significantly.
Demographic Support Differences
Support for Harris among Black voters is notably strong, with 84% in Georgia and 78% in North Carolina. College-educated voters also favour her, with 55% in Georgia and 53% in North Carolina. In contrast, Trump garners broad support from white voters without a college degree, leading by 81% in Georgia and 65% in North Carolina. This stark demographic split reflects broader national trends.
Governor’s Race in North Carolina
The North Carolina governor’s race shows a different story, with Democrat Josh Stein leading Republican Mark Robinson by a clear margin of 53% to 37%. This indicates significant ticket-splitting. Among Trump supporters, 77% back Robinson, though 10% support Stein and 12% are undecided or unwilling to vote for either candidate. Harris’s supporters show overwhelming support for Stein at 96%.
Individual Issues Influence Voter Choice
Voter priorities play a crucial role, with candidates’ positions on key issues outweighing leadership qualities for many. In Georgia, 58% consider issue positions more important, paralleled by 56% in North Carolina. Trump is preferred for handling immigration, foreign policy, and the economy, while Harris leads on abortion rights. Both candidates are viewed nearly evenly on maintaining democratic values.
Biden’s Administration Impact
President Biden’s approval ratings are similar in both states, with 39% approval in North Carolina and 37% in Georgia. The administration’s response to Hurricane Helene, however, receives lower marks in North Carolina compared to Georgia, with significant portions of the population unsure of their stance on the issue. These perceptions align with broader partisan divisions.
Confidence in Electoral Process
Confidence in the electoral process is relatively stable, with about 80% of likely voters in both states expressing at least some confidence in a fair vote count. This confidence level rises among Harris supporters, reaching 90% in both states. Among Trump’s backers, 74% in North Carolina and about 67% in Georgia share this confidence, indicating some partisan variation.
Methodology and Margin of Error
The poll was conducted between October 23 and 28, 2024, using both online and telephone interviews with registered voters. A total of 732 voters in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina participated. The margin of error is approximately 4.7 points for Georgia and 4.5 points for North Carolina, which is typical for such surveys, adding context to the tightly contested races.
Both Georgia and North Carolina remain critical in determining the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections. Voter engagement and early voting trends are central to the unfolding political scenario, with no clear frontrunner emerging yet.
