With just five weeks remaining until Election Day, early voting has commenced nationwide. Current data indicates a potential decline in pre-election voting compared to the record highs seen in 2020.
More than 500,000 votes have already been cast in 27 states, based on data from election officials, Edison Research, and Catalist.
The surge in early voting during the 2020 election was largely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. With the situation now stabilised, it is anticipated that more voters will choose to vote in person this year.
Significant increases in ballot requests from voters aged 65 and over have been observed. These older voters represent a larger share of ballot requests compared to the same period in 2020 in key states such as Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Historically, Democrats have favoured pre-election voting more than Republicans. However, recent trends suggest a narrowing gap.
In Pennsylvania, Democrats have requested 62% of ballots, a slight decrease from 65% in 2020, while Republicans have increased their share from 24% to 26%. Florida shows a similar pattern, with Democrats at 42%, down from 44%, and Republicans rising from 33% to 35%.
Analysis of racial demographics reveals minimal changes in key states like Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin compared to 2020.
The trend is slightly different in Florida, where the proportion of White voters requesting pre-election ballots has increased from 69% to 74%. Conversely, the percentages for Latino and Black voters have marginally decreased.
The racial data for early voting is available in a broader range of states compared to partisan data, providing valuable insights into demographic participation in pre-election voting.
The 2020 election was significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting early and mail voting patterns.
Michael Frias, CEO of Catalist, noted that this year’s election is expected to be relatively normal without pandemic-related disruptions. This implies a potential return to more traditional voting behaviours, including increased in-person voting.
Both major political campaigns have been intensifying their efforts to mobilise voters throughout the year. Early voting data offers a glimpse into the effectiveness of these strategies.
According to Frias, this period marks an initial opportunity for campaigns to evaluate their outreach success and refine their strategies.
Early voting trends, while not entirely predictive of final outcomes, provide a snapshot of voter engagement across different demographics.
Although there is a notable decline in early voting compared to 2020, the data remains a critical tool for understanding voter behaviour and adjusting campaign efforts accordingly.
In summary, as the nation approaches Election Day, early voting trends indicate a shift from the exceptional circumstances of 2020. The data suggests a movement towards more traditional voting patterns.
This shift, highlighted by increased in-person voting and changes in voter demographics, underscores the evolving nature of electoral participation.
