The current Premier League season has seen unprecedented challenges for several clubs. Six teams, including Everton, have not secured a win in their opening five games. Newly promoted teams are spending more trying to survive. The gulf in quality between top and bottom teams is growing. Historic data suggests relegation is increasingly likely for these winless teams.
For the first time in English top-flight history, six Premier League teams have failed to secure a win in their opening five matches. Everton, Crystal Palace, Wolves, Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester find themselves struggling at the bottom of the table. This situation raises questions about whether the quality gap in the league is expanding.
The financial landscape for newly-promoted clubs has evolved significantly. Clubs like Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester have spent a record £314.5 million combined this summer in an effort to secure their Premier League status. Despite this, historical data reveals that all promoted clubs faced immediate relegations last season.
Statistical projections for this season highlight a striking trend. The top three Premier League teams are currently projected to achieve an unprecedented 2.47 points per game if they maintain their form, while the bottom three teams could average a record low of just 0.2 points per game. Such figures underscore the widening gulf in performance standards.
Historically, the performance of relegated teams has seen a marked decline in recent years. Relegated clubs last season amassed only 66 points, an all-time low, reinforcing the challenges faced by teams at the lower end of the table. The required points for survival have steadily decreased, with a rolling average dropping to just over 32 points in the past five years.
Investment in squads appears to be a double-edged sword. Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham retained their Premier League status through significant spending in 2022/23, with Forest alone spending £173.3 million. Conversely, Fulham’s expenditure of £100 million in 2018/19 did not prevent their relegation. Current projections suggest that despite heavy investment, Ipswich, Southampton, and Leicester might still face relegation this season.
The ongoing season indicates a growing disparity within the Premier League, despite record investments aimed at survival.
